Greatest Possible Baseball Team: Slot 21 Utility Infielder

Most teams carry back up infielders. Starters need rest days, days off or they get injured or can't meet the demands of baseball's gruelling schedule for a couple of games. I look forward to the national furor over the first MLB player to take maternity leave.

Anyway, having a player that can master any infield position (first, second and third bases, as well as shortstop) is a huge asset. And if that player happens to be a true defensive wizard*, then they add the very useful tactical option of being a defensive replacement. Doing so late in the game reduces the load on the starters and keeps them (hopefully) healthy, while maximizing the team's situational strengths. After all, once you take the lead, the only way to lose it is by giving up runs.

So my ideal utility infielder is a masterful defender who's got the chops to handle any of the four positions. His primary use will be as a defensive substitute. He needs a decent bat, particularly in this line up, for those days where he's spelling a starter.

Selection: Ozzie Smith

Perhaps no other player is as well known for his defensive ability as the Wizard. An incredible athlete with fantastic range, a cannon arm, a fantastic glove and excellent judgement, reasonable estimates place Ozzie's defensive value between 150 and 240 runs prevented above average across his career. Call it ten runs a season better than average, every season for 18 years. That's phenomenally rare. Fangraphs puts his peak defensive year as 1989, when they estimate he saved 32 runs. Even only coming in the 7th inning and later, Ozzie would be worth about 10 runs on defense over an average defender. That's at least an extra win (across an average season) created by just the glove of bench player. I suspect it might be worth more, as Smith would spend his time fielding in higher leverage situations.

While his defense is universally lauded, his offensive contributions are too often overlooked. Admittedly, for his first 6 or so years in the majors, Smith struggled offensively. By 1984, though, Smith had developed into an above average offensive player with a sustained peak between 1984 and 1992. While always lacking for power, Smith managed to combine an excellent batting eye with excellent speed on the base paths (580 SB). Oddly enough for a player of his speed, he did so with a surprising low batting average on balls in play, only breaking .300 three times. Even in his final season, in 1996, Smith was an offensive threat, posting a .282/.358/.370/97 (avg/obp/slg/wRC+).

Across his career, including his offensively anemic Padres tenure, Smith posted a .262/.337/.328/94 line. In his best year with the bat, he hit .285/.380/.367/122. And Smith's ability to get on base better than 35% of the time for pretty much his entire Cardinals career is even more useful talent in the line up of this team.

Alternates

Brooks Robinson

By many accounts and metrics, Mr. Hoover was the greatest defensive player ever. Fangraphs estimates he saved 294 runs above the average 3B across his career. And he had two seasons above 30 runs saved (1967 and 1968) in an environment where runs were even more precious than they are today. And he had an above average bat. Where Ozzie had speed and a discerning eye, Brooks had some power, hitting 268 homeruns and possessing a career batting line of .267/.322/.401/105. His peak year offensively came in 1964, when he hit .317/.368/.521/145 with 28 homeruns, played his usual excellent defense and won the MVP.

It's worth noting that Robinson's runs above average is calculated against third basemen, rather than all defensive players. While I have no doubt he would've been strong shortstop as well, I don't see him handling it as well a Smith. Or the guy who was playing shortstop along side Robinson much of the time, a guy named...

Mark Belanger

The other greatest defensive shortstop of all time. Belanger didn't see as much play time in his career as Smith, so his lifetime 241 runs saved is very impressive, but unlike Smith or Robinson, his bat was generally weak (.228/.300/.280/72). Defensively, his best year may have been 1975 with 35.0 runs saved above average (from Fangraphs), making him an All Star worthy shortsop with only a .226/.286/.276/70 batting line. Belanger is your guy when defense is your only priority. Belanger isn't a Hall of Famer, though he and Robinson probably deserve a fraction Jim Palmer's plaque.**

Speaking of Palmer, did he not have the best luck with defenders? He started his career with the greatest defensive pairing of shortstop and third baseman ever behind him and ended it with the (arguably) greatest defender to split his time between shortstop third base. Who is, incidentally, also an alternate:

Cal Ripken Jr

Frankly, Ripken's offense is slightly overrated. He's definitely the best bat on this list, but not by a wide margin, at least averaged across his career, hitting .276/.340/.447/111. Of course, that was an average across a 20 year career where Ripken played EVERY SINGLE GAME for 16 years. The Iron Man probably traded reliability for peak performance, but his peaks were quite high, most notably his 1991 season, where he hit .323/.374/.566/156 which was also his best year defensively, saving 23 runs above average according to Fangraphs -- arguably the best season ever from a shortsop.

Regardless, neither Ripken's durability nor defense were in any way overrated: 2632 consecutive games and about 180 runs saved above average (Fangraphs again). Ripken is a worthy choice as starter at shortstop (particularly for his peak season) and makes an excellent choice for utility infielder.

*Yes, this is a foreshadowing clue. **For what it's worth, Palmer's ERA is about 80% of what his Fielding Indepedent Pitching (FIP) estimates what it would be with an average defense behind him. And wow, how did Baltimore end up with something like a third of the 10 all time greatest defenders?

Greatest Possible Baseball Team: Slot 22, Super Utility Player

The idea behind this 25 man team is that it will play through an entire season without being able to call up any players that are better than some set level (be it replacement level or league average, it doesn't really matter) available to all of your opponets as well. So you are not allowed to count on any hidden gems in your farm system. As a result all injury risk and mitigation is shouldered by the 25 man roster.

So a position player that can truly play anywhere on the field is a valuable asset. There aren't many great players that have played multiple seasons worth at the defensively difficult, up the middle positions (including catcher), but there's at least one.

Selection Craig Biggio

While Biggio spent most of his career at second base, he played 428 games at catcher and 255 games in center field. While he generally wasn't outstanding defensively, he was competent and was occasionally good at second. Biggio's bat was also strong, with a career .281/.363/.433/117 (AVG/OBP/SLG/wRC+) across his career. It only appears lightweight in the context of the rest of the team. Biggio's best season was probably 1997. He hit .309/.415/.501/153 with excellent fielding.

No doubt, Biggio is a step off the pace of the rest of this team. But injuries are almost a certainty in a 162 game regular season and the combination of durability, offensive value and defensive flexibilty Biggio offers is unique and very, very valuable.

Alternatives

The combination of successful catcher and middle infielder is pretty much unique. If you drop the middle infielder requirement, you might consider Yogi Berra. If you drop the catcher requirement, very dangerous in my mind, you might take Pete Rose. Though neither one of these players was that much better with the bat than Biggio. If you're Whitey Herzog, you'd probably go with the Secret Weapon.

Greatest Possible Baseball Team: Slot 23 Left Handed Specialist

Starting in the 90s, a trend has developed to use left handed pitchers in critical, high leverage situations to neutralize left handed batters. Sometimes called a LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY), left handed specialists are noted both for their ability to get left handers out due to platoon splits and for pitching less than one inning per appearance. Given the quality of players we have to choose from for "The Greatest Possible Baseball Team", I doubt I would use my choice less than one inning per appearance, but I did pick him due to his ability to get left handers out. And please note that, strictly speaking, the left handed specialist doesn't really need to be left handed -- Roger Clemens and Roy Halladay both have had excellent results against lefty batters (going back to Fangraph's beginning of platoon split data, 2002).

Selection: Randy Johnson

Originally, I had Sabathia here. I disqualified pitchers that didn't make the 162 innings per season limit necessitated by the ERA title qualifier and apparently those years he didn't qualify since 2002 make the difference for Johnson. Just looking at the 2002-2009 data, Johnson has the lowest Fielding Independent Pitching of any pitcher versus left handed batters, at 2.40. That excludes about two thirds of his peak, so I wouldn't be surprised if peak Randy Johnson were even better than that against lefties.

I don't think I need to really explain why Johnson is a good fit here. And frankly, I'd just as likely use him in a starting role. But for now, he occupies my LOOGY slot. But back to Johnson's greatness: not only was the Large Unit amazing againt left handed batters, he's was phenomenal against everyone. Career 3.29/3.19/76/73 (ERA/FIP/ERA-/FIP-) pitcher with an average of 10.6 K/9. That's 4875 strikeouts. His peak season was probably 2001 with the Diamondbacks (memorable year, for sure): 2.49/2.13/55/46.

Retired since the 2009 season, Johnson seems to spend a signficant amount of his time making commericals where he throws baseballs and Pepsi bottles through things like jackets, garages and trash can lids. I can't wait to see him through through a tank. Of course, the commercials should really show off his legendary slider, maybe have it out turn a Sidewinder in a dogfight.

Oh, one more thing, Randy Johnson is maybe the second greatest baseball player of all time to bat right handed and throw left handed.

Alternatives

CC Sabathia

Simply put, Sabathia has the lowest FIP of any qualified for ERA title (162 innings pitched per year) pitcher versus left handed batters since such splits have been recorded, coming in at 2.85. His career numbers, 3.52/3.52/80/81 and durability have combined to set him on a potential Hall of Fame track, as well. His peak season, 2008, he posted 2.70/2.91/63/68.

Billy Wagner

One of the cases where picking the reliever for the relief slot doesn't really hurt you. Wagner actually has the nearly the lowest FIP versus left handed batters among relievers since 2002 at 1.73. While Wagner received a boost by pitching mostly in relief, his career numbers aren't anything to sneeze at: 2.31/2.73/54/63 with almost 12 Ks per 9 innings.

After Mariano Rivera, I don't think there's actually a full time reliever better than Billy Wagner,As such, I think a strong case can be made to put Wagner in the Hall of Fame, but the gate keepers of that Hall aren't the sort who'd likely listen to me, by and large.

Any great left handed pitcher

Lefty Grove, Warren Spahn, Steve Carlton, hell, Babe Ruth if you want. You might bring up Jamie Moyer, but I prefer 20th century and later players.

Greatest Possible Baseball Team: Slot 24, Ground ball specialist

Sometimes there are situations when you absolutely can't give up a home run. Sometimes you might face lineups loaded with powerful, slow sluggers. And sometimes you need a twin killing. In these situations, it's really useful to have a pitcher that knows how to generate groundballs. Bases loaded, bottom of the 9th and 1 out? Here's your man:

Selection: Brandon Webb

One of the minor tragedies of past 5 years has been the loss of Brandon Webb's arm. For 6 years, before his arm broke, Webb was on a Hall of Fame trajectory. For his (sadly short) career, he produced a 3.27/3.50/72/76 (ERA/FIP/ERA-/FIP-) which puts him on level with such luminaries as Sandy Koufax and Christy Mathewston. Used as a reliever, we could expect him to have even better numbers. By any measure, Webb was an elite pitcher for those 6 years. Had he had a 15 year career with his current career line, he'd might even deserve at least a general bullpen spot. As it is, he adds a lot to the general pitching depth able to pitch in relief or as a starter.

But that's not why he's here specifically. Webb is THE premier groundball specialist, at least as far back as groundball/fly ball splits are recorded (2002). His career groundball ratio 64.2%, the highest of any pitcher with more than 1000 innings pitched. When you need a either a groundball or a strike out, Webb is your man. His strike out rate 7.26 K/9 is high for a ground ball pitcher. And he kept the ball in the zone and in the park, giving up less than 3 walks per 9 innings pitched and as few or fewer homeruns per 9 than either Roger Clemens or Greg Maddux (0.63 for Webb and Maddux and 0.66 for Clemens). When you can't give up a deep fly ball, call on Brandon Webb: 71% of the batters who faced him either hit the ball on the ground or struck out. In his peak year, 2006, only 27% of hitters managed to walk or put the ball in the air. Webb's overall line of 2006: 3.10/3.18/66/67.

Alternatives

Derek Lowe

While Lowe's total peak isn't as high as Webb's and his career ground ball rate is a little less than Webbs, he does claim the two highest groundball rate seasons for a starter. And he's been notably more durable than Webb, as his arm continues to function. His strike out rate is considerably lower, even though it's been boosted by his early use as a reliever. Still Lowe has had some great years, with 2002 being the most notable: 66.8% ground ball rate, and 2.58/3.34/57/75 in his peak year as a starter.

Chad Bradford

If you demand that your relief slots be filled primarily with relief pitchers, then Bradford is your guy. His lifetime groundball rate comes in directly between Lowe and Webb at 63.7%. And his homeruns per 9 is an excellent 0.44, though that and his other stats are a little out of proportion due to his exclusive use as a reliever. His best season was perhaps 2002: 3.11/2.58/71/61.

Bradford also likely rounds out the "alternates from places Nathan has lived category", being from Byram, MS. Apparently he also graduated from Byram High School in 1993. Oh, and you may have seen him or a portrayal of him in Moneyball.

Greatest Possible Baseball Team: Slot 25, Pinch Runner

Pinch running specialist

The pinch running specialist's primary role is to provide a significant upgrade over at least some of the starters on the basepaths, particularly in late and close, high leverage situations where great base running can create runs. Being able to convert a walk into a double or triple via steals can greatly swing a games likely outcome. Outs in these situations are an absolutely anathema, so the pinch runner need not only be a fast and prolific stealer, but also a reliable one who rarely gets caught. Also note that I focused on stealing ability as modern baserunning stats (extra bases advanced compared to average) only go back about a decade.

Consider the following situation: tie ball game, bottom of the 9th, runner on 1st. Not a great baserunner, or perhaps an overly aggressive one (such as, hmm, Babe Ruth. 1926 World Series, anyone?). The pinch runner specialist is who I put in for that runner to put the game away. A successful steal of 2nd not only removes the double play and puts a runner in scoring position, it adds a about 6% chance to win. And if he can then nab 3rd, he's improved the odds of winning by over 20% (calculated here). That said, I want I guy who knows when not to run, too. An out in such a scenario hurts a lot, hurting my chances of winning by about 12%. If I have Ruth on, he's fairly likely to attempt the steal. Who do I put on to replace him (or, perhaps, anyone else?)

Selection: Tim Raines

The often overlooked Raines holds the highest stolen base percentage of anyone with over 400 steals, at about 84%. Rickey Henderson, no slouch himself, comes in at just over 80%. Raines was also a fantastic hitter with a high peak: .294/.385/.425/.374/134 (avg/obp/slg/woba/wRC+)for his career and a .334/.413/.476/.412/162 season in 1986. His defense was sometimes exceptional, but across his career profiles more as league average.

Raines stole 808 bases, which is not much more than half the number Rickey Henderson stole, but I put that down to a mix of Henderson's amazing logevity and Raines's slightly better judgement on the base paths. I think it's enough to establish that the man could run the bases and swipe one when necessary.

Raines was also a switch hitter, which might lessen the gap between his and Henderson's bats against right handed pitching. Unfortunately, the splits only go back to 2002, so they're not useful here. Still, being a switch hitter (a great switch hitter, even) off the bench is a nice perk.

Ultimately, though, no one else combines Raines's level of base stealing aggressiveness with such a high success rate. 808 steals, 84% success rate. That's what it boils down to. Raines not only runs with best base stealers of all time, he knows better than anyone else when not to run.

Alternates

Rickey Henderson

He really doesn't need any justification, does he? All time leader in stolen bases (and runs and unintentional walks and who knows what else), 80% stolen base rate, fantastic batter, a little light on power, but with a much higher batting peak than Raines and better career stats, too. The big differentiator between Henderson and Raines is Rickey's sustained level of performance. For 19 years, from 1980 to 1999, Henderson was a better than average left fielder. And he was a great defender for the first ten years, too. Anyway, Rickey hit .279/.401/.419/.386/141 across his lifetime with his best season coming in 1990: .274/.439/.577/.467/204. That's a higher wRC+ than Musial's best season (200 in 1948). Those stolen bases matter.

But since this is the pinch runner specialist, that 4% difference in stolen base rate matters, too.

Carlos Beltran

Beltran actually holds the record for stolen base percentage among batters with at least 299 steals at about 88% (he sits at 299 today). While it's commendable, he never approached Raines's (or Henderson's) prolific baserunning seasons. He's a good pick, with a good bat and good defense (and more time in centerfield than Raines or Henderson), but without the steals as a central part of his game, he doesn't compel me. And his bat is actually, when normalized by era, a bit weaker than Raines. He's had more pop than Raines or Henderson and as a Cardinal fan, I'm gratefuly for it today.

Cool Papa Bell

Really, after Raines, Henderson and Beltran, there isn't any statistical room. The other prolific stealers generally were caught more than 20% of the time. Any of the thieves with better than an 80% success ratio is a decent pick and you could make justifications based on the make up of the rest of your lineup. Joe Morgan, Ichiro Suzuki, Alex Rodriguez, Barry Larkin and Roberto Alomar all bring some really useful tools to either the bench or a starting lineup. But for a pinch runner, Raines reigns.

But not all players have had the opportunity to build the statistical support. Notable among the Negro leagues players who suffered from segregation is James "Cool Papa" Bell. We have only anecdotes and hazy statistical evidence, with a reported round trip time of 12 seconds the batter's box back to the plate. By all accounts, Bell was both ridiculously fast and an excellent base runner. The nlbpa.com article is a good place to start looking.

It's also noteworthy that Bell was born in or around Starkville, MS.

Greatest possible baseball team

Shortly, I will attempt to answer the question "What's the greatest possible baseball team one could draw from all of the players in history?" It's a tricky question. Usually, people put forth a player for each position with maybe a relief pitcher or two as well. I don't think that's enough.

Baseball teams are not judged so much on the quality of one game, but the quality of their pan-season (and post-season) performances. Great teams have the depth to overcome injury and the bench pieces to make the most of a high leverage situation, be it with a left handed specialist, a speedy pinch runner, or good defensive replacements. Top nines are fun, but baseball teams have 25 players on the roster and everyone of those can be used to improve the team's record across a season, even by simply providing a banged up starter with a day off and preventing a worse injury down the line.

So I read the question at hand as "What 25 man roster would have the best record after a 162 game season, assuming 81 games with the DH and 81 games without?" I'm going to assume that park effects are negligible and that home field advantage is negligible as well. Furthermore, I'm assuming that any call ups (due to injuries) would be roughly replacement level players. No leaning on the farm system here.

As a result, my bench selections will be made with either positional flexibility or a specific role such as base running specialist in mind. That said, I'm not going to completely neglect a player's other tools. All of the bench position players I select will be legitimate around players, but usually ones who have at least one outstanding quality that would make them useful tactical pieces such as defensive replacements. I'll also put forth a few alternative candidates for each slot.

I invite others to put together similar rosters. In fact, some friends are doing so, and we'll be rolling out the rosters, one slot at a time starting tomorrow, June 1st. Feel free to adjust the specialist roles or balance your roster as you see fit. I'll be rolling out my selections roughly in order of inverse play time. So tomorrow, I reveal my 25th man, the pinch running specialist. And no, it's not Vince Coleman.

It's not over

First, thanks and congratulations are in order. Thank you to the coalition of people who have and are making a stand against the SOPA and PIPA bills now before Congress. And congratulations as well, it look like the Internet demonstration is harming the bills' support.

We -- you -- have won the battle. But the war, the war is not over. And it's been going on a long time. SOPA and PIPA are copyright laws, and the purpose of copyright law is, Constitutionally, to "promote the Arts and Sciences" creating information shared by everyone, i.e. the public domain. Yet for the United States' entire history, more self interested parties have attempted to twist copyright law for their own ends, regardless of the harm to freedom of expression or the public domain.

As you no doubt understand, the Internet is built on freedom of expression and sharing of information. Destroying it with laws that violate its principles will harm everyone, including the short sighted groups that lobbied for the SOPA and PIPA. But for greed, avarice or stupidity, they can't see that

Already, they're planning the next assault against the Internet and the principles it's built upon. As shown in this TechDirt article, they'll talk about criminals and stealing and, no doubt, child porn. These are emotional topics -- so emotional that they'll cause people to react rather than think. And they hope no one will speak out, because who can be for child porn?

So what can we do to win not just this battle, but the upcoming ones and the war? First, we must educate ourselves. When I say coalition, I meant it. My stance is different from Google's and Wikipedia's and probably yours as well. We need to know why we're fighting and, just as importantly, why SOPA and PIPA's supporters are wrong.

Good learning resources include:
The Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) on Intellectual Property

Copyright expert, free culture advocate, lawyer and Havard professor Lawrence Lessig's many works

The Berkman Center For Internet & Society where Lessig currently works.

Cornell's Legal Information Institude

And, of course, Wikipedia.

We need to have a plan going forward. Definitely be ready to speak out and be ready to write your congresspersons. But you'll need a plan of action to share and to advocate. Consider these and decide what you think the best path is:

Nate Anderson of Ars Technica

EFF's White Papers on your rights and how to defend them.

One insightful redditor's take on the issue

Lastly, don't forget to support the groups that fight these battles every day. First and foremost, join and support EFF -- the premier advocate for Internet and computer freedoms. Furthermore, consider supporting other groups that promote the Internet and fight our rights and abilities to share in it:

The Creative Commons: "...realizing the full potential of the Internet — universal access to research and education, full participation in culture — to drive a new era of development, growth, and productivity.

The Free Software Foundation. Advocating for the free (as in freedom) software ideals that much of the Internet is built upon.

The American Civil Liberties Union Less directed than the EFF, but longtime advocates of First Amendment rights.

And, of course, Wikipedia

There's much more to understand, of course. The fundamental issues behind this conflict are very deep. Soon, I hope to share red pill and you'll find out just how deep the rabbit-hole goes.