Book Review: The Multiplex Man

Title: The Multiplex Man Author: James P. Hogan

The Multiplex Man is a decent read, with a clever and twisting story arc revealed in a nonlinear way through the various viewpoints of the eponymous character. Published in 1992, it inverts the East/West ideological divide by creating a authoritarian West that has turned to a ideologically Green command economy purportedly to stave off a Malthusian disaster. In contrast, former Soviet bloc has become a freedom loving, apparently strongly capitalistic and libertarian society that's enjoying the benefits of a healthy connection with human colonies throughout the solar system.

Against this backdrop, the hook is dangling quickly, with the reader drawn in with the mysterious as to why mild mannered Dick Jarrow awakes from a doctor's visit to find himself in a hotel in a different state with all of the trappings of an adventerous life -- lipstick on the pillow, guns and cash in a bag and a set of mysterious notes -- as well as well as a different identity. As he searches to understand his situation, we're given ever deeper layers of mystery to uncover.

Plotwise, the story arc twists and turns, with the situation rarely being entirely what it seems. While the characters' constant obsession with ideology can be offputting, it isn't entirely inappropriate for the world it's set in. It does detract from some of character building, making the characters feel flatter than I think they otherwise would. The point of view shifts, while occasionally fitting well within the plot and system of the universe, are often jarring and I think could've been executed more smoothly. Still, they do likely avoid unnecessary exposition which is generally a good thing.

All-in-all, a worthwhile read that kept me interested despite feeling excessively ideological.

Letters of Thanks

Today's the last day of November and, for much of the month, people have been giving thanks publically for a variety of things in their lives. I think that's a fine idea, but I've been pondering a variation of the theme.

Like many of the November thanksgivers, I'd like to focus on the people I'm thankful for. Naturally, this includes my parents, siblings, wife, friends and extended family, but there are also others who've touched, shaped and improved my life in a variety of less personal, though still very important, ways. I'd like to thank those people who, despite not (or just barely) knowing me personally, have made my life what it is today.

I'm slowly putting together a list that at the moment consists primarily of authors and founders of organizations I've benefited from. There are undoubtably other categories and persons I should consider and I welcome suggestions.

Many of these people are quite advanced in age, so I'm going to prioritize such that I first address those whom I worry are nearest death. The oldest member of the list so far is former Mississippi governor William F. Winter who established Mississippi Governor's School -- a revolutionary influence on my life -- in 1981.

My wife's card project has shown just how meaningful a single letter or card can be, particularly today when phones and the internet are the preferred media for casual conversation. So, for now, the preferred tool of expression will be a written (well, typed, my handwriting is atrocious) letter. In Winter's case, that leads to the question of how to send him a letter as I haven't found a mailing address for him. I appreciate any suggestions.

I think a regular pacing, perhaps a letter every one or two weeks, makes a good practice.

Some Books Worth Reading

I put together a list of books worth reading for a friend of mine. It's based on a mix of his and my tastes and intended to introduce him to new works. Originally, it was more balanced, but I decided to flesh out some more of the speculative fiction works (which is my favorite genre, no doubt).

I've read everything on the list. I limited it to one book per author (mostly, an author might show up more than once due to collaborations).

It's not a ranking or anything. Many of the books are my favorites by a particular author, but not all. (For instance, Prelude to Foundation is probably my favorite Asimov book).

Note: Categories are fuzzy with overlap. Very Rough. I'd love to get feedback.

Non Fiction

Physics

• QED, Richard Feynman
• The Age of Entanglement, Louisa Gilder
• The Elegant Universe, Brian Greene
• The Black Hole Wars, Leonard Susskind

Math

• Group Theory in the Bedroom, Brian Hayes
• The Drunkard's Walk, Leonard Mlodinow
• An Introduction To Information Theory, John R. Pierce

Engineering

• The Pencil: A History of Design and Circumstance, Henry Petroski.
• Roving Mars, Steven W. Squyres

Music

• This Is Your Brain On Music, Daniel J. Levitin

Speculative Fiction

Hard Sci-Fi

• The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein
• Red Thunder, John Varley
• A Deepness In The Sky, Vernor Vinge
• Snow Crash, Neil Stephenson
• Revelation Space, Alastair Reynolds
• Footfall, Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle
• The Integral Trees, Larry Niven (This is an edit. Originally, I had listed A World Out of Time.)
• Neuromancer, William Gibson
• Tangents, Greg Bear (specifically for "Blood Music")
• The Uplift War, David Brin

Potpurri

• Slaughterhouse Five, Kurt Vonnegut
• Something Wicked This Way Comes, Ray Bradbury
• The Handmaid's Tale, Margaret Atwood
• The Complete Compleat Enchanter, L. Sprague de Camp and Fletcher Pratt
• David Starr, Space Ranger, Isaac Asimov

Fantasy (fairly broad definition of Fantasy)

• His Majesty's Dragon, Naomi Novik
• Small Gods, Terry Pratchett
• American Gods, Neil Gaiman
• A Spell For Chameleon, Piers Anthony

Alternate History

• Death Is Lighter Than a Feather, David Westheimer
• A World of Difference, Harry Turtledove
• 1632, Eric Flint
• Lest Darkness Fall, L. Sprague de Camp
• Birds of Prey, David Drake

Backpack

Components of my backpack. Eventually, I'd like to go as modular as possible with my backpack system, but I still like to be prepared for unexpected events.

Front compartment

1. Zagg USB Wallcharger/Backup battery
2. Mini USB cable
3. Micro USB Cable (long)
4. Sandisk Sansa Clip Music Player (with 16 GB Micro SD card)
5. MicroSD to SD card adapter
6. Stanley 4 in 1 pocket screwdriver
7. 2 black ballpoint pens
8. 1 blue ballpoint pen
9. 1 mechanical pencil
10. Tire gauge

Middle compartment

1. Business Card holder
2. Stanley Small Screwdriver set
3. Kindle in case with reading light
4. Small Umbrella
5. Vivatar 5x30 Binoculars
6. Small electrics bag
   1. Small, cheap LED flashlight (3xAAA batteries)
   2. Sprint Wall and Car outlet to 2x USB charger
   3. Mini USB Cable
   4. Micro USB Cable

Main Compartment

1. Ultrabook (Zareason Ultralap 430)
2. Ultrabook power adapter
3. Various notebooks, usually Moleskins
4. Overnight/Emergency supplies bag
   1. Bag of bags: Multiple sandwich and gallon sized ziplock bags
   2. 2 Toothbrushes
   3. Notebook bag: old moleskin datebook, mechanical pencil in ziplock
   4. deoderant
   5. 2 toothbrushes
   6. triple antibiotic ointment
   7. Eton Hand crank Flashlight/Weather radio/USB charger
   8. Hotel Bar soap
   9. Hotel shampoo bottle
   10. Spare underwear
   11. Spare socks
   12. Small items subbag
       1. Matchbook
       2. several rubber bands
       3. 4 AA batteries
       4. 7 AAA batteries
       5. 1 9V battery
       6. Spare headphones

At the moment it's not overly heavy, but I can still add more stuff.

Things I'd like to add:

1. Small bottle of sunscreen.
2. Hat
3. Spare glasses
4. Towell
5. Shorts
6. T-shirt
7. Toothpaste
8. Multitool
9. Deck of cards
10. High calorie snack of some sort.
11. Tablet (Nexus 7?) probably replacing Kindle

A Ham radio would be cool, too, but I'd need to learn how to operate one and get a license.

I don't think all of that is going to fit in my current backpack, though at the moment, I could accomdate a couple of full size textbooks as well. The towel, in particular, would need to be cleverly done.

What else should I have?

On Secessionists

A note on the minor seccessionist movement and it's responses.

Ok, a set of notes. Please feel free to not read. I won't be offended.

1. When I say minor, I mean it. Let's consider Mississippi. As a write this, the petition on petitions.whitehouse.gov for Mississippi to secede from the US "Peacefully grant the State of Mississippi to withdraw from the United States of America and create its own NEW governmen" has 16330 signatures. Out of an adult population of roughly 2.25 million people. That's seven signators per thousand adults in the State.

Less than one percent. And that's assuming they're at all serious. Or that they actually live in Mississippi, neither of which we can easily verify. As it stands, they're an incredibly small and thus unrepresentative portion of the population. Schizophrenia is more common, but we're not talking aout a schizophrenia epidemic.

2. It's clearly an attempt to vent frustation rather than actually do anything. Possibly mixed in with utter incompetence, I concede. They keep referenceing the Declaration of Independence, which very much wasn't a petition. I presume that if this was in any way serious, they'd follow the parallel and issue such a declaration themselves.

3. Self determinism isn't a bad thing. After all, the US is founded on the idea, and reaffirmed it as a member of the UN. It's not relevant here, of course, as less than one percent of a population isn't anywhere near enough selves.

4. What's truly represehensible (to whatever extent these petitions can be) are the petitions to strip petitioners of their rights or citizenship or otherwise punish them. Free speech and the right to petition for a redress of grievances are explicitly protected rights under the Constitution and the idea that anyone, particularly the President, ought abridge them should be anathema to anyone who actually believes in the principles Americans claim to love.

Greatest Possible Baseball Team: Slot 7, First Base

Ah, the eternal question: "Who's on first?"

Along with designated hitter and the corner outfield spots, first base has historically been on the bat before all else positions. So, not surprisingly, three of the top ten hitters (by era uncorrected consolidated battings stats like OPS+ and wRC+) of all time are first basemen.

While cases can be made for other players, particularly multipositional players like Musial, Mantle and Foxx, the argument for the best first baseman in MLB history boils down to two players: Lou Gehrig, Albert Pujols. It's a tight enough race that I'm going flip my usual format and have the player discussion mostly before making my selection.

First, some raw batting numbers:

Albert Pujols (at time of writing): .325/.416/.609/455 (avg/obp/slg/HR)

Lou Gehrig: .340/.447/.632/493

It's clear that the Pujols's bid for a roster slot depends heavily on correcting for the different eras he and Gehrig played in, as well as their relative contributions on defense. League and era context matters and that adds an addition wrinkle:

Sadaharu Oh: .301/.445/.634/868

Yes, that's 868 home runs. If context didn't matter, the choice for first base would be easy: Sadaharu Oh, hands down.

Since context does matter, we'll have to look at the context.

Some of that is fairly straightforward: wRC+ allows us to compare batters to their contemporaries, but is only available for the MLB players.

Gehrig: 174

Pujols: 167

Compared to their peers, Gehrig has some advantage over Pujols with the bat. It's not a large difference, though, and league average normalization still doesn't account for the relative qualities of average talent in different eras. Throw in Pujols's apparent advantage in defense, and the fact he plays against talent drawn from a much larger population and I'll call it a wash.

However, wRC+ weights events according to their value in a league average context. For the greatest possible team, the offensive environment is considerably more potent, so not getting out (and getting on base) is an even more valuable skill than normally.

From 1923 to 1938, Gehrig's career before his disease disabled him, MLB average OBP was 0.3448, so Gehrig's .447 was about 1.30 times better than his peers.

Pujols plays in the modern context and across his career, OBP has averaged 0.3304. We put Gehrig in the Pujols modern context, at least compared to their respective peers, by multiplying 1.30 by .3304 to get Gehrig's equivalent modern OBP as .428. So, neglecting the talent difference of the eras (and it's hard to quantify), Gehrig's equivalent OBP is notably higher than Pujols. With the rest of the line up filled by the other greatest hitters of all time, that's suggests Gehrig would be a better choice than Pujols.

But oh, what of Oh? To even begin our comparison, we need a projection of how Oh would have done in the MLB. Fortunately, Jim Albright has already done such a projection, based on the relative performances of MLB players who moved to Japan and explained in part 2 of his discussion of Oh's Cooperstown qualifications. Albright figures Oh's hypothetical MLB career would've resulted in a .279/.412/.484 with 527 home runs line from 1962 to 1980. Clearly, Oh's slugging takes a fairly severe hit, though the 1960s and 70s were low power eras, so the effect is exaggerated some.*

*I'd like to go back and calculate Oh's normalized slugging in an MLB context and make an attempt at estimating his Runs Created value as well. I'd probably use a normalized gross production average (1.8*OBP+SLG)/4 as a first cut, as it should be on approximately the same scale as OPS+ and wRC+. But I've put enough time in this already, for now.

What's more important in this context is Oh's projected OBP compared to the MLB average for those years. Dropping his weaker age 39 and 40 seasons (largely for a better comparison with Pujols and Gehrig), Oh projects to have been about 1.32 better at getting on base than the average major leaguer oh the time. Set in the modern context, that would give Oh an OBP of 0.435, higher than either Gehrig or Pujols.*

*As discussed later, Albright was extra conservative about walk rate. Even if Oh's actual walk rate was used (rather than correcting for the differences in leagues, which would favor Oh), his on base ability projects to about 1.36 times MLB league average, or a .450 career OBP if set in the modern .330 OBP league average context and about .470 in Gehrig's time. It is not unreasonable to conclude that Sadaharu Oh's eye for the strike zone and on base skills were on the level of Wiliams and Ruth*/

And Oh's projections are for years well into the post integration era, so the average talent level they are based on is higher than Gehrig's time, though likely somewhat lower than now. Still, given the offensive context of this potent team, Oh's on base ability gives him the advantage.

By nearly accounts, Oh's defense was well above average. Giving him credit for a modest 5 runs saved above average per season seems reasonable. Added to Albright's projection, that leave Oh with about 80 runs saved above average on defense, making him comparable to Pujols. Even as a league average first baseman, Oh's bat still gives him an edge over Pujols in this line up.

There's also one more card in Oh's hand. While Pujols appears to be leaving his peak performance period, his career line is currently little affected by it. Gehrig died rather tragically had his career and life cut short by his disease and so didn't really have the typical post peak tail. Oh, instead, played for 21 seasons in NPB and demonstrated the ability to play at an elite level into his late 30s.

Selection Sadaharu Oh

The greatest slugger in Nippon Professional Baseball history, with 868 home runs, Oh makes the roster not on his power, but on the strength of his on base ability. His career NPB line of .301/.445/.634 with 868 home runs is not far from what might have expected from Lou Gehrig had he played another 7 years. Jim Albright projects Oh's hypothetical career in the MLB as 0.279/0.412/0.484 with 527 home runs from 1962 to 1980.* Normalizing Albright's numbers by league average, and Oh's ability to get on base (in comparison with his peers) exceeds even Gehrig. In the greatest possible team run scoring context, that's enough. Oh's strong defensive reputation is an additional perk, though.

*Albright was actually conservative in his walks estimates. While he found that players are more likely to walk in the MLB context, he didn't correct Oh's walk totals for either the league difference, actually in Oh's favor, or the extra playing time. Since more walks means fewer at bats, Oh's entire line improves. Just extrapolating Oh's walk rate (at 20.5% behind only Ted Williams's 20.6% among MLB batters) without accounting for the league difference gives a career stat line of 0.287/0.433/0.497

Unlike the Negro league greats who didn't later play in the MLB, Oh (and other Japanese players) actually did play against MLB baseball teams in exhibition games, usually against higher quality teams. His 426 PAs in these games provide nearly a full season's worth of data and help validate Albright's projections: .260/.413/.524 with 25 home runs and 14 doubles from 1960 to 1979. Note, though, that these games were usually held in the smaller Japanese ballparks of the time.

The left handed Oh's best season probably was 1974. His NPB line of .332/.527/.761 with 49 home runs in 130 games projects to .301/.474/.539* with 32 home runs in 162 games in the MLB. That would be good enough to lead the league in OBP (over Rod Carew) by 31 points and place third in slugging, after Dick Allen and Mike Schmidt. As a rough estimate, that's about 192 wRC+. Compare that to Joe Morgan's MLB leading 171. A fantastic peak season.

*Even with Albright's conservative walks estimate

If you like awards and championships: 9 NPB MVPs, 9 Gold Gloves and 11 Japan Series Championships with the Yomiuri Giants.

Alternatives

Lou Gehrig

When I woke up this morning, Gehrig was my selection.

The most legendary of all first basemen, Gehrig, a left handed batter, shined brighter among his peers that even Oh and Pujols. In addition to playing in 2130 consecutive games, the Iron Horse had four seasons with an fWAR greater than 10, a hall of fame worthy achievement in itself. The best of those was probably the Murderous Row campaign of 1927, when Gehrig hit .373/.474/.765/210 (avg/obp/slg/wRC+). Gehrig's optimism and character in the face of a debilitating, terminal disease have justly added to the legend of a truly elite ballplayer.

Gehrig's career line is the best in MLB history for a first baseman: .340/.447/.632/147 with roughly average defense for 125.9 fWAR in only 14 mostly full seasons of play time.

Albert Pujols

Despite being only league average with the bat this season, The Machine is in the midst of a clear Hall of Fame career. Never accruing less than 6 fWAR in a season from 2001 to 2010, Pujol's current .325/.416/.609/164 line with 88.5 fWAR puts him behind Gehrig in value at first base. While Pujols's peak offensive seasons haven't been quite as valuable as Gehrig's, with only the 2003 season (.359/.439/.667/185) exceeding 10 fWAR, his strong defense (almost 70 runs saved above average) and greater talent pool Pujols has faced make a strong argument for Pujols as a co-equal with Gehrig as greatest MLB first baseman of all time. And he stands well with Rogers Hornsby as the greatest right handed batter as well.

Greatest Possible Baseball Team: Slot 8, Catcher

Catchers may be the least appreciated position in baseball. Catching body destroying work, and unlike other position players, catchers are involved in every single pitch. Every pitch that isn't hit and some that are opportunities for a catcher to make a mistake... or a big play.

A truly bad catcher can cost you severely: passed balls and wild pitches, dropped third strikes, poor game calling and an inability to control the running game can cost a team dearly (though no catcher at the major league level is actually bad). Not surprisingly, a catcher's bat is often secondary to role behind the plate. As a result, truly potent offensive catchers are rare and cherished resource at the major league level.

At the same time, a big bat or the ability to get on base can cover a few mistakes behind the plate. Particularly given the sort of line up that surrounds our catcher, those offensive skills are even more valuable normal. A strong argument can be made for true bat first catcher since his hits and home runs are morely to find runners on to score and the outs he doesn't spend mean more plate appearances for the hitters of the Ted Williams variety.

Selection Johnny Bench

That said, I've chosen to be cautious in my catcher selection and taken the best all round catcher of all time, Johnny Bench. His bat, while not as big as some, is still powerful. And his defense -- his ability to control the running game in particular -- is not something I want to risk doing without. Particularly since I've already got a high OBP, bat first catcher in Joe Mauer, I'll take Bench.

Johnny Bench is probably the best catcher of all time. His defense seems to have been above average to explemplary, never below average until his final two seasons and four times above 10 runs saved above average according to Fangraphs, totally 71.0 runs saved above average. His offense wasn't bad either, with a career .267/.341/.476/125 (avg/obp/slg/wRC+) and a peak in 1972 of .270/.379/.541/155 to go with 13.0 runs saved above average and an fWAR of 10.2, the best season ever by a catcher. He's also the career leader in fWAR at catcher, with 81.5.

Alternatives

Mike Piazza

Given the run scoring environment created by the rest of the line up, there's a strong argument to be made that a bat first, (relatively) bad defensive catcher would more than make up for his flaws behind the plate from the box next to it. Piazza is the premier, bat first, glove... somewhere down the line catcher. Defensively, he appears about as far below average as Bench was above it with Fangraphs estimating that Piazza was worth a 62.9 runs below average behind the plate, though his poorest defensive years all came later in his career.

But, wow, could he hit. His .308/.377/.545/140 line is the best ever for a catcher with over 1000 games. Piazza's best season was probably 1997: .362/.431/.638/183 and roughly average defensively for 9.4 fWAR, the 2nd best season for a catcher, ever, after Bench's 1972.

Gene Tenance

Tenance is one of those forgotten greats that you might rediscover looking through Adam Darowski's Hall of wWAR or by sorting catcher's by OBP. Tenance is one of the player's most shorted by the "Batting average is the best offensive stat" crowd, with a lifetime .266 batting average, but an OBP of .388, a slugging of .429 and wRC+ of 138, just behind Piazza. With roughly average defense across his career, Tenance makes a good alternative for offense first catcher to Piazza without being quite the defensive liability Piazza seemed to be.

Furthermore, in this line up, simply not getting out is worth even more than it is normally, and Tenance's .388 OBP leads all catchers with at least 1000 games in the post integration era (though Joe Mauer is only 22 games away from 1000 at the time of writing).

Josh Gibson

Arguably the greatest Negro league player to never get his opportunity in the traditional big leagues, Gibson's power hitting ability is most often compared to Babe Ruth's. Gibson died young, of a stroke at age 35 and lived and played the last few years of his life with a diagnosed brain tumor. His Negro League line looks strong: .359/.413/.644. Roy Campanella, an excellent player and a good choice in his own right, managed only .314/.346/.481 across his Negro League time, though that was quite early in his career. More on Gibson.